Texas Hold ‘Em Starting Hands Expected Value

The Expected Value of a poker hand refers to the expected worth of that hand played over time.

The best resource I’ve found for EV information was provided by PokerRoom.com. They gathered data from over 122 million hands played and compiled the results. As EV is based on actual play of the participants, you’ll notice the hands here differ significantly from the probabilistic charts on LINK.

The EV makes assumptions about proper game play including pre-flop raising, continuation bets, etc. Technically, one may read the chart as: if you are dealt pocket kings (KK) at a $2/5 table, your expected return is $16.70 if you bet $10 (1.67 x $10 bet). This  calculation clearly makes a number of assumptions on callers, bet size, etc, thus ymmv.

Some interesting things to note:

  1. This data reinforces what any good Hold ‘Em player knows: the majority of hands are not worth playing.
  2. A2s has an EV of 0. Conservative players will tell you playing anything less than A9 suited is a poor investment. This data shows the aggressive “any suited ace” mentality is correct.
  3. Pocket Jacks have a higher EV than AKs – even though many would argue AKs is a better hand. Inconsistencies like this are well illustrated by the chart.
Cards EV Count
AA 2.32 550,632
KK 1.67 551,878
QQ 1.22 549,570
JJ 0.86 550,948
AK s 0.77 367,870
AQ s 0.59 368,178
TT 0.58 550,156
AK 0.51 1,106,047
AJ s 0.43 367,811
KQ s 0.39 366,191
99 0.38 552,062
AT s 0.33 367,393
AQ 0.31 1,101,249
KJ s 0.29 365,921
88 0.25 550,710
QJ s 0.23 368,213
KT s 0.20 368,086
AJ 0.19 1,103,946
A9 s 0.18 368,279
QT s 0.17 365,398
KQ 0.16 1,103,231
77 0.16 553,492
JT s 0.15 367,811
A8 s 0.10 368,982
K9 s 0.09 367,736
A7 s 0.08 369,231
AT 0.08 1,105,376
A5 s 0.08 367,900
KJ 0.07 1,105,604
66 0.07 549,696
A4 s 0.06 367,553
Q9 s 0.06 367,923
T9 s 0.05 367,750
J9 s 0.04 369,223
QJ 0.03 1,102,901
A6 s 0.03 366,998
A3 s 0.02 367,269
55 0.02 550,840
K8 s 0.01 369,893
KT 0.01 1,103,705
98 s 0.00 368,190
T8 s 0.00 366,732
K7 s 0.00 367,647
A2 s 0.00 366,466
QT -0.02 1,106,012
Q8 s -0.02 367,657
87 s -0.02 367,787
A9 -0.03 1,105,684
J8 s -0.03 367,615
76 s -0.03 367,110
JT -0.03 1,102,233
44 -0.03 552,443
97 s -0.04 369,494
K6 s -0.04 366,407
K4 s -0.05 368,061
T7 s -0.05 367,201
K5 s -0.05 368,807
Cards EV Count
Q7 s -0.06 367,512
86 s -0.07 367,805
A8 -0.07 1,100,445
J7 s -0.07 364,541
33 -0.07 551,586
K9 -0.07 1,103,920
65 s -0.07 367,986
T9 -0.08 1,103,441
54 s -0.08 367,333
Q6 s -0.08 368,294
K3 s -0.08 368,321
K2 s -0.08 368,737
Q9 -0.08 1,107,991
J9 -0.08 1,102,303
64 s -0.09 369,101
T8 -0.09 1,107,310
Q5 s -0.09 369,538
96 s -0.09 369,159
75 s -0.09 369,303
22 -0.09 553,171
J8 -0.10 1,104,552
98 -0.10 1,103,082
97 -0.10 1,104,506
A7 -0.10 1,104,965
T7 -0.10 1,103,171
Q4 s -0.10 368,471
J4 s -0.11 366,906
74 s -0.11 369,655
K8 -0.11 1,106,439
86 -0.11 1,105,837
53 s -0.11 366,243
K7 -0.11 1,101,741
85 s -0.11 367,456
63 s -0.11 365,732
J6 s -0.11 366,958
85 -0.11 1,106,745
T6 s -0.11 368,322
76 -0.11 1,105,164
Q8 -0.11 1,106,395
J5 s -0.11 368,354
T6 -0.11 1,101,165
Q3 s -0.11 367,390
75 -0.11 1,105,498
A5 -0.12 1,104,643
Q7 -0.12 1,104,331
T5 -0.12 1,107,072
87 -0.12 1,103,007
83 -0.12 1,106,532
65 -0.12 1,104,700
Q2 s -0.12 368,355
94 -0.12 1,105,939
74 -0.12 1,101,551
A4 -0.12 1,104,763
T4 -0.12 1,106,174
82 -0.12 1,101,727
64 -0.12 1,101,489
42 -0.12 1,101,359
Cards EV Count
J7 -0.12 1,105,297
93 -0.12 1,104,310
73 -0.12 1,105,302
53 -0.12 1,105,251
T3 -0.12 1,102,033
63 -0.12 1,103,080
K6 -0.12 1,103,401
J6 -0.12 1,104,704
96 -0.12 1,105,092
92 -0.12 1,107,579
72 -0.12 1,104,285
52 -0.12 1,107,694
A6 -0.12 1,105,125
T2 -0.12 1,105,503
95 s -0.12 368,015
84 -0.12 1,104,856
62 -0.12 1,107,570
T5 s -0.12 368,030
95 -0.12 1,102,769
Q3 -0.13 1,106,081
43 -0.13 1,106,577
K4 -0.13 1,104,957
J4 -0.13 1,106,654
T4 s -0.13 370,150
54 -0.13 1,104,529
Q6 -0.13 1,105,012
Q2 -0.13 1,104,650
J3 s -0.13 368,616
J3 -0.13 1,104,433
T3 s -0.13 369,188
A3 -0.13 1,105,722
Q5 -0.13 1,106,053
J2 -0.13 1,103,759
84 s -0.13 368,694
Q4 -0.13 1,103,742
K5 -0.13 1,105,669
J5 -0.13 1,105,844
43 s -0.13 368,525
82 s -0.14 368,039
42 s -0.14 369,977
93 s -0.14 368,278
73 s -0.14 368,640
K3 -0.14 1,104,211
J2 s -0.14 367,858
92 s -0.14 367,488
52 s -0.14 367,876
K2 -0.14 1,106,898
T2 s -0.14 369,195
62 s -0.14 367,206
32 -0.14 1,103,272
94 s -0.15 367,617
72 s -0.15 368,039
A2 -0.15 1,106,519
83 s -0.15 368,814
32 s -0.16 369,182